How J+D delivered a long-term forecasting model sooner than ever before using proprietary software tool
J+D were approached by a global pharmaceutical company with a broad pipeline across rare diseases, who needed an improved forecasting approach to evaluate a new extension line in greater detail and gain valuable insight from affiliates.
The company were planning to launch a new formulation of their therapy for a rare disease, expected to represent a significant step in the dosing and management of the disease. They had been using multiple forecast models to support their different forecasting processes, however, none of these models were suitable for evaluating the potential for the new formulation.
Within the disease area, major market changes were expected in the future, due to several early-stage first-in-class treatments in development, so it was essential to have the ability to effectively model these changing dynamics to try and maximise the potential of their new opportunity.
Existing, internally built forecasting models were no longer fit-for-purpose as they were unable to effectively model the potential for their new formulation, or the expected major changes in market dynamics.
There was a need to gain perspective, engage and collaborate with affiliates effectively. Their existing model design made it difficult to effectively consolidate affiliate feedback, making the process time-consuming and inefficient.
- A requirement for the development of a new model within a short timeframe and with limited immediate budget available.
J+D would develop a tailored Excel-based long-term forecast model using our internal forecasting software. Developed from our decades of experience working with a broad spectrum of clients, our software has been designed to automate the process of developing models, whilst allowing for tailored customization for specific brands or markets.
- The model would incorporate tailored dosing assumptions for the client’s product line to accurately convert patients to volume. For specific countries we would also include revenue caps and compassionate use assumptions where relevant to the forecast.
- Using a more automated and modular approach we would achieve a faster build of the forecast model core elements, which would be less prone to error during the technical development process, therefore reducing the time required to QC test the model.
- As part of this project, the client was also delivered a Consolidator file to allow the regional team to consolidate and compare affiliate forecasts easily and effectively in a single file.
“The fast build means the new extension line can now be modelled in detail and be easily explored and provide insightful consolidation and comparison of affiliate forecasts. All this was ready for our next LRP cycle.”
Global Senior Brand Leader Rare Diseases.
As the model build was completed 80% faster than previously possible, the client was delivered a significantly improved forecast model within their limited timeframe to help support the commercial success of this new formulation.
- As J+D were able to review the existing client models and engage with affiliates during the scoping phase, this enabled a close, effective collaboration with the client throughout the process, ensuring the final solution aligned with their needs and expectations.
- Despite limitations in the availability of market data, J+D were also able to tailor the segmentation of the market, whilst still delivering all the of the key outputs and key performance indicators that were required, maintaining simplicity and transparency in the model.
- The process of consolidating and comparing country forecast data has been significantly simplified for the client. We provided a single model template for utilization across 25 countries, which ensured a consistent forecasting approach, and country data can now be easily consolidated and compared.
- The J+D model allows for efficient, structured gathering of feedback and inputs, enabling the client to work collaboratively with affiliates on their forecasts. Affiliates are now able to take ownership of their forecasts to guide internal discussions and maximise the potential of their new opportunity.
- In addition to supporting those countries immediately planning to launch the new formulation, this model also allows others to include their medium to long term forecasts for the product.
About J+D’s custom build forecast models.
The utilization of J+D’s proprietary software has facilitated a tailored model build for this client in days rather than weeks, with a 40% lower upfront spend, reducing budget demand and therefore supporting internal approvals. This enabled delivery of the whole project within weeks of first contact.
With no compromise on quality, our Excel-based models are developed with key forecasting philosophies and best practice principles with ease of use built in. Cloud compatibility allows for easy process integration and scheduled model updates across affiliates.
Expert training and support by J+D means that this client and their team are now more confident in creating accurate, high-quality forecasts for their new formulation.
Get in touch today to discuss your model development needs with our experts.