Understanding Forecasting in Oncology.

Oncology Forecasting Tips.
Oncology is recognised as a challenging area to forecast. This is evidenced through a 2013 study which looked at over 1700 forecasts of 260 drugs. It concluded that oncology therapies are the most commonly underestimated forecasts. The Oncology market is expected to exceed $147 billion in 2021. The increased importance of forecasting has become even more relevant in recent years, due to the specificity of new-era targeted therapies. These therapies target specific subsets of patients, meaning it is paramount to ensure accurate and robust forecasting to limit over-or under-estimation of product usage.

Why is forecasting in Oncology different to other diseases?

Other factors for consideration:

  • Length of therapy
  • Persistency rates
  • Patient progression
  • Treatment holidays
  • Treatment restrictions
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