Understanding Forecasting in Oncology.

The nature of cancer and the therapies used to treat it translate into a more complex, time consuming, data heavy forecasting process. The progressive nature of cancer means that patients move through lines of therapies and stages of disease, and are eligible for different treatment options at each point; it is important to be able to model this progression and follow a patient through their treatment pathway. Patient flow based approaches are most commonly used, where length of therapy and progression rates model how patients progress. They follow patients from when they are first diagnosed and treated, through each stage and line of therapy, until they eventually drop out of the treatment pathway. Tip: Ensure that you have defined your target market accurately and are forecasting in the correct patient group.

Prior therapy use is a factor in oncology forecasting. There are often restrictions in place which stop treatments being used in the same patient more than once. Often, the opportunity for treatment use in second line and later depends on the treatments available and used first line. Restrictions reduce the patients available to be treated with a product. Tip: Ensure restriction are incorporated within a forecast in order to limit overestimation of product usage at each line.

Cancer types are becoming increasingly segmented, and therapies are becoming more advanced and specific in order to target these segments. Therapies are now often targeted towards specific biomarkers or other patient characteristics. New treatments are also changing the landscape of the disease. In melanoma, novel treatments have resulted in a tripling of treated patients over the past few years. Agents with similar mechanisms of action have been approved in quick succession in recent years, so clinicians have more therapy options.

Oncology treatments range in formulation, from packs of pills to vials. This brings additional inputs to the conversion section, as body weight or body surface area need to be considered, as well as the split between pack or vial types. In addition, oncology forecasts can be at a regime or product level. Tip: If they are at a regime level, these need to be converted through to products before they can be converted through to volume and revenue.