While pharmaceutical forecasting teams face many challenges when working on their forecasting cycles, a common request we hear is the need to respond quickly to questions and challenges around the forecast from stakeholders and senior management. For example, ‘What would be the impact on revenue of increasing our market share by 5%?’ or ‘What return would we get on a campaign that increased compliance by 2%?’
It is possible to complete this type of analysis within the forecast models themselves, often via pre-set sensitivity or scenario analysis tools, and leading to static, isolated outputs. However, this can be restrictive and time-consuming leaving users frustrated having to continually switch between inputs and outputs when adjusting the assumptions. The analysis becomes particularly time consuming to run if you have disparate and inconsistent forecast models, or the current tools do not provide the required granularity within the models.
Ideally users would be able to directly adjust the desired variables and understand their impact immediately, without having to explore the detail of the models or switch between different sections.
Using FC365 to explore 'What-if'
FC365 has been designed with specific functionality that addresses this need, and typically resonates strongly with our clients. The ‘what-if’ analysis, can be run in real-time with, or by, the stakeholders concerned, and still retain the robustness and flexibility of Excel-based forecast models in the background.
This analysis tool allows users to directly change key model assumptions within the analytic component of FC365, either through use of a sliding scale or by entering specific changes in assumptions. This is carried out in a simple and intuitive way and removes the need to directly access the Excel forecast models. As the change in a selected output (typically revenue) can be seen immediately, it allows users to instantly see the impact of the changes to the forecast assumptions, and directly compare the new outputs with the original values.
To add even more value, the results can be analysed by region, country, brand, patient segment and more, providing the ability to deep dive into the results and identify differences by key components of the forecast.
Finally, the analysis can easily be reset in a click of a button before further discussions and potential ‘what-if’ questions are raised and answered!
The ‘What-if' analysis tool in action
FC365 makes it easy for users to navigate between the customisable analytics area and the forecast models that underpin the ‘what-if’ analysis tool in just a few clicks. Take a look..
Focussing the analysis on the critical assumptions from the forecast model – inputs that will be changed commonly as the forecast is being reviewed, such as market shares, compliance, etc, will ensure that the analysis remains simple, therefore allowing any stakeholder to use to explore the impact on the forecast.
These analysis capabilities, in combination with the immediate output results, clear visualisation and high accessibility, make this analysis tool extremely powerful and engaging for stakeholder teams at local, regional and global levels.
So Get in touch if you want to relish it when someone asks ‘What if…’ rather than dread the analysis involved.
Author: Andrew Ward, Consulting Director at J+D Forecasting. Working in the pharmaceutical analytics space since 2002 and leading a consultancy team in delivering forecasting solutions including software application development at J+D since 2014.
