J+D develop ‘Goal Seeker’ tool for enhanced pharmaceutical forecasting

The challenge we hear from many forecasters is the ability to align the required output results with input values. This is particularly difficult when the forecast covers a long time period, or when key stakeholders have a specific forecast number in mind and require the forecaster to align to this using a myriad of inputs.

To address this need, J+D Forecasting is developing a product to support analysts working with pharmaceutical models that will help with the following challenges:

  1. Matching Target Outputs (e.g. revenue) quickly and efficiently by revising Inputs, based on defined constraints.
  2. Building ‘what-if’ functionality to determine what could decision variables be, within defined constraints.

This new tool will allow the user to work backward from a known output (e.g. revenue) and input values across various pre-defined parameters over a time period.

Why the J+D reverse forecasting solution is an advanced analytical tool.

Alternative ‘Goal Seek’ algorithms are based on an Excel add-in which is limited to specific inputs. So, although these solutions can perform some of the actions, their limitations mean that it would be very cumbersome and complicated to deal with the complex scenario exploration required within pharmaceutical forecasting models.

If the decision variable(s) do not satisfy constraints, the best you can hope for is a ‘good’ solution or ‘close to optimal’ when seeking a globally optimal solution.

With our deep knowledge of pharmaceutical forecasting methodologies, paired with bespoke model building and software development, we are able to deliver an industry-specific solution for our clients.

In line with the J+D philosophy of flexibility, our solution will allow the user to define which decision variables can be amended, while also allowing for the software to provide default solutions. An easy and user-friendly layout will allow clients to quickly and efficiently match outputs in any modelling methodology or situation.

Watch this space for further developments and launch announcements. If you would like to find out more or have an enquiry contact us today.

Co-author: Maiko Midena, Director Modelling and Forecasting at J+D Forecasting has decades of experience within the pharmaceutical space leading forecast and modelling projects, along with consultancy and data analysis roles.

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