Adding Events

Adding Events

Future events in the market can typically be classified into one of several types

< Back to Creating a Pharmaceutical Forecast
Adding events

Scenario

Inputting a single fixed value for each assumption independent of the level of certainty associated with the assumption – often includes scenario analysis (best, base and worst cases).

Scenario-based forecasting involves creating multiple versions of the forecast and then varying the assumption inputs to create alternative forecasts. It is common for three scenarios to be created, a base case which is the most likely outcome, worst case which includes a credible set of negative assumptions and, best case, including a credible set of positive assumptions. The best approach to scenario-based forecasting is to first identify those assumptions that have the largest impact on the forecast and are also associated with some uncertainty.

Probability

Inputting a distribution instead of an uncertain single fixed value and the Monte Carlo simulation will calculate different possible outcomes, each with an associated likelihood.
Probability-based forecasting involves defining a probability for each of the key assumptions. This is then used to analyse the different possible outcomes and a range is produced associated with a level of likelihood – typically that a certain level of revenue will be achieved. We recommend Monte Carlo simulation a computerised mathematical technique that allows you to account for risk. A Monte Carlo simulation provides the decision-maker with a range of possible outcomes and the probabilities they will occur for any set of variables.

Econometrics

Econometrics takes the historical performance of a dependent variable and explains its relationship to a set of independent variables.

Econometrics takes the historical performance of a dependent variable, like unit sales, and explains its relationship to a set of independent variables, like price and/or promotional spend. The resulting mathematical model describes these historical relationships, for example that a 10% increase in price resulted in a 5% decrease in unit sales. This econometric model can then be used to help predict the future performance of a product.

Schedule a call

Book a call with our experts to explore how we can support your needs. From optimizing new product planning to maximizing market impact during product launch and ensuring consistency in on-market product forecasting, our innovative software and expert support services enable you to make informed decisions and drive success.

"My colleagues and I love the J+D models in terms of usability and aesthetic appeal. The Sales+ software has really helped with a consistent and efficient review process as the models are clear and easy to read. The President and Vice-Presidents on my team tell me the models include everything they need to accurately forecast current and future product launches."

Jeanine Woodruff, Senior Business Analyst, XGen Pharma

"The J+D team is very experienced and bring a lot of knowledge to their projects. They are very insightful about what sort of things to include in models."

Market Analytics Manager, ViiV

"Overall I really like the Sales+ tool. It lines up very well with our current process and adds some advantages (consistency, transparency, flexibility and speed)."

Insights Manager, Novo Nordisk

Book a call with our experts to explore how we can support your needs. From optimizing new product planning to maximizing market impact during product launch and ensuring consistency in on-market product forecasting, our innovative software and expert support services enable you to make informed decisions and drive success.

"My colleagues and I love the J+D models in terms of usability and aesthetic appeal. The Sales+ software has really helped with a consistent and efficient review process as the models are clear and easy to read. The President and Vice-Presidents on my team tell me the models include everything they need to accurately forecast current and future product launches."

Jeanine Woodruff, Senior Business Analyst, XGen Pharma

"The J+D team is very experienced and bring a lot of knowledge to their projects. They are very insightful about what sort of things to include in models."

Market Analytics Manager, ViiV

"Overall I really like the Sales+ tool. It lines up very well with our current process and adds some advantages (consistency, transparency, flexibility and speed)."

Insights Manager, Novo Nordisk

ready to take your forecasts to the next level?

Get in touch for a complimentary consultation.

Request a consultation >