Creating a Pharmaceutical Forecast.

Best practice considerations

There are several steps to think about when producing a forecast.

Within each step there are several methodology options.

Defining the market

Market definition can be achieved via a Sales, Epi, Opportunity or Patient Flow based forecast

Sales Based
Sales based forecasts are effective for short-term tactical forecasting for “stable markets”.

Epi Patient Based
Epidemiology based forecasts start with a population and by applying a series of filters estimates the size of target patients.

Opportunity Based
Splits treated patients into stable vs opportunity groups (e.g. new, switch).

Patient Flow Based
Follows a cohort of patients over time and captures progression to different disease states.

Trending the market

Two main ways to trend historical data – based on its characteristics, data availability and/or user’s knowledge

Judgemental based trending
User defines trend by inputting key assumptions such as expected end share and type of uptake curve.

Algorithm based trending
The trend automatically calculates, based on historical data using pre-set algorithms selected by the user.

Adding events

Future events in the market can typically be classified into one of several types

What is an event?
Anything which can affect the course of a market

What types are there?
Market
Class Event
Product Event

How do they gain Market Share?
Stealing
Expanding

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