Trending the market

Two main ways to trend historical data - based on its characteristics, data availability and/or user's knowledge

When reviewing historical data there are four key things to look out for:

  1. Recent events that have changed the trend
  2. Aberrant observations, or single fluctuations that could distort the trend line
  3. Structural breaks in the data that render the trend up to that point superfluous
  4. Seasonality

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