The background
A clinical-stage biotech, with a broad oncology pipeline required an improved forecasting approach to support their launch strategy and pipeline prioritisation decision-making for a novel and innovative oncology technology.
Their lead asset was in Phase III development, and they urgently needed to establish a more robust forecasting approach to support its commercialisation.
The recently hired CCO had worked with J+D Forecasting for several years at his previous company and was looking for help implementing the necessary infrastructure to support the company’s short and medium-term challenges.
The Challenges
- An internally-built finance model for strategic planning was not fit for purpose and made effective decision making difficult and time-consuming.
- Uncertainty about the validity, the methodology and the data driving the model for their lead indication.
- A short timeline and limited resources meant they required support in creating a robust forecast for their lead asset.
- In the mid-term, the client’s objective was to upskill the internal team to run all their forecasting in-house, without an external consultancy.
- A more consistent forecasting approach was needed, which could be used for other potential indications so they could undertake pipeline prioritisation confidently.
The Solution
With over a decade of global forecasting experience and their patented FC+ pharma forecasting software, J+D were ideally positioned to resolve these challenges.
The FC+ software was an ideal solution as it delivered best practice forecasting that was efficient and supported better transparency and consistency for the team. Also, by selecting the oncology specific option, Onco+, they could use the built-in patient flow methodology. Meaning, the complex algorithms necessary for robust oncology forecasting would be ready for them to use out of the box.
By combining this with access to our forecasting experts for consultancy and training, the client would be able to meet both their short-term and longer-term needs.
The Process
The first step was to run a complete data and methodology audit together with an in-depth discussion to understand the company’s needs.
This resulted in the following steps:
- The adoption of a patient flow methodology using Onco+ would, in the short term, cut the forecast development timeline significantly and, in the mid to long term, would support best practice forecasting within the team.
- Using Onco+ software, J+D ran several workshops, with their forecasting experts working closely with the client’s core team to plan and execute the model build process. This consultative approach helped meet the short-term goal of creating a robust forecast for the lead asset and equipped the internal team with all the skills required to independently develop their models moving forward.
- Following an audit of the data and assumptions, J+D’s experts put a recommended research programme in place that addressed some of the weaknesses in the market sizing and future event assumptions.
- The team implemented a tailored coaching plan to support the client’s forecasting team, so they felt confident in both best practice forecasting principles and the particular technicalities required to forecast the targeted oncology technology the company was developing.
- The J+D team continued to support the core team throughout their strategic planning cycle and were on hand to answer questions and provide advice whenever needed.
The Successes
The clinical-stage biotech accomplished the short-term goal of having a more robust and accurate forecast for their lead asset. Working closely with J+D’s forecasting experts, the client created the model quickly, using Onco+ software, and ran a detailed data and assumptions audit.
The objective of upskilling the internal team was met through coaching and training, using case examples. The team is now fully independent in the development of sophisticated oncology models. The client is now confident in generating and communicating forecasts that identify their pipeline assets’ commercial opportunities and risks.
Finally, by using Onco+ software, there is now an efficient forecasting process that is both time and cost-efficient, allowing for scenario analysis, country and regional deployment with automated consolidation and reporting. All models are built using best practice forecasting principles and are easy to update, amend and share across the stakeholder team.
For more on how J+D can leverage the latest in forecasting technology, book a consultation with our experts using the booking form below.
