Creating a Pharmaceutical Forecast.

Best practice considerations

There are several steps to think about when creating a pharmaceutical forecast.

Within each step there are several methodology options.

Defining the market

Market definition can be achieved via a Sales, Epi, Opportunity or Patient Flow based forecast

Sales Based
Sales based forecasts are effective for short-term tactical forecasting for “stable markets”.

Epi Patient Based
Epidemiology based forecasts start with a population and by applying a series of filters estimates the size of target patients.

Opportunity Based
Splits treated patients into stable vs opportunity groups (e.g. new, switch).

Patient Flow Based
Follows a cohort of patients over time and captures progression to different disease states.

Trending the market

Two main ways to trend historical data – based on its characteristics, data availability and/or user’s knowledge

Judgemental based trending
User defines trend by inputting key assumptions such as expected end share and type of uptake curve.

Algorithm based trending
The trend automatically calculates, based on historical data using pre-set algorithms selected by the user.

Adding events

Future events in the market can typically be classified into one of several types

What is an event?
Anything which can affect the course of a market

What types are there?
Market
Class Event
Product Event

How do they gain Market Share?
Stealing
Expanding

Schedule a call

Book a call with our experts to explore how we can support your needs. From optimizing new product planning to maximizing market impact during product launch and ensuring consistency in on-market product forecasting, our innovative software and expert support services enable you to make informed decisions and drive success.

"My colleagues and I love the J+D models in terms of usability and aesthetic appeal. The Sales+ software has really helped with a consistent and efficient review process as the models are clear and easy to read. The President and Vice-Presidents on my team tell me the models include everything they need to accurately forecast current and future product launches."

Jeanine Woodruff, Senior Business Analyst, XGen Pharma

"The J+D team is very experienced and bring a lot of knowledge to their projects. They are very insightful about what sort of things to include in models."

Market Analytics Manager, ViiV

"Overall I really like the Sales+ tool. It lines up very well with our current process and adds some advantages (consistency, transparency, flexibility and speed)."

Insights Manager, Novo Nordisk